Optimization of the Western Surabaya Shipping Channel Design Based on Semi-Quantitative Risk Analysis for Navigation Risk Level Reduction
Abstract
The Western Surabaya Shipping Channel (APBS) serves as Indonesia's primary logistics gateway to Eastern Indonesia. Despite its 2014 revitalization, 27 shipping accidents occurred between 2014–2024, indicating persistent navigation safety gaps. This study aims to optimize APBS design through a semi-quantitative risk analysis approach to reduce navigation risk levels in eight critical segments. The methodology integrates hydro-oceanographic data, ship traffic, historical accidents, and expert judgment from six experts (harbor pilots, KSOP, Navigation District), using a 5×5 risk matrix with Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) weighting. Results show that the Channel Geometry Factor (CGF) dominates risk contribution (45%), followed by Exposure Frequency (23%), Environmental Conditions (20%), and Historical Accident Factor (12%) (CR = 0.077). Of 15 identified hazards, 80% are classified as Unacceptable. The combined optimization scenario (deepening, widening, geometry improvement, and shipwreck evacuation) reduces 91.7% of hazards to ALARP/Acceptable levels. However, minimum design standards (width 200 m, depth –14 mLWS, radius 4×LOA) are insufficient for Segment 3, leaving a residual risk score of R' = 16. Additional interventions—radius ≥1,000 m (5×LOA), deepening to –15 mLWS, and a one-way system—are required. This research concludes that risk-based APBS optimization effectively reduces navigation risk but necessitates interventions beyond conventional minimum standards. The findings provide actionable recommendations for policymakers and port authorities in enhancing maritime safety and operational efficiency.
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